Sunday, March 2, 2008

10 Day TRIN




Note: the following statistics are for the 10-day moving average of the TRIN, and not the daily closing TRIN value.

68% of readings (1 standard deviation) should be between .96 and 1.36
95% of readings (2 standard deviations) should be between .76 and 1.56
99% of readings (3 standard deviations) should be between .56 and 1.76

In other words, we should expect a reading under .76 or over 1.56 approximately 13 times per year. Since such a reading would be relatively unusual, it suggests that we may be seeing an unsustainable trend. These figures assume a normal distribution curve.